This is how the Lib Dem Vote in Loughborough could give us a Tory MP and Cameron in No10.

Background - Andy Reed had a majority of 5,700 in 1997, which went up to 6,300 in 2001 but fell to just less than 2000 in 2005. But you need to look at what happened in those years to understand why a vote for the Lib Dems might this time allow the Tories in through the back door this time.

Look at the graph. As you will see there is no appetite for the Tories. Their percentage of the vote has remained static since 1997. In fact in 2005 their share of the vote was still lower than their 1997 showing. The Tories claim they reduced my majority with a ‘great campaign. ‘ In fact they went backwards!

The only reason my majority fell was people switching their vote from Labour to Lib Dem. I have talked to many people who felt they could ‘afford’ to vote Lib Dem because they knew I would still win – but could send a message to Labour and Prime Minister Tony Blair.

As the seat is now highly marginal that sort of free vote is no longer an option. You either vote FOR me directly or you lose me and get an out of town London career Tory MP. There are now serious consequences for how you use your vote. You are very powerful.

Some facts that are worth bearing in mind.

The Lib Dems top 100 target seats need a swing of 9.45%. To win in Loughborough they need a swing of 20%. Put simply it isn’t going to happen.!

The Lib Dems would need to be on over 50% in the national opinion polls to be anywhere near taking Loughborough. However, another small 4% swing to the Lib Dems in Loughborough allows the right wing out of town London Solicitor to become the MP for us all.

So what are the choices. Well if you are a Lib Dem member and supporter you may think you have no choice other than voting for your party. Can I reassure you that many individual Lib Dem members and even Councillors have voted for me at elections because they realise the nearest chance they have to get anywhere near Lib Dem policies being enacted is by having me personally as MP for Loughborough. Many people have worked it out. In the current voting system it is possible and necessary sometimes to vote tactically to get what you want. I know there are Labour Party supporters in the SW of England who do the same to keep Tories out.

Graeme Smith – 2005 Lib Dem candidate

Remember Graeme. He was the candidate for the Lib Dems in 2005 – but he was so impressed by Andy as the local candidate that after the election he resigned the Lib Dems just so he could support Andy Reed, and joined the Labour Party. He was particularly angry they chose the London Solicitor and career politician to fight this seat again. Graeme is passionate about having a genuine local MP.

Andy Reed – the candidate who resigned over Iraq, has not supported replacing Trident, did not support the introduction of Top-up Fees and has pledged to vote against any further increases. Andy Reed is a hard working conscientious MP who has backed Liberal values.

Conclusion

A Lib Dem vote in Loughborough is wasted. It is wasted in the sense that there is no hope of Loughborough electing a Lib Dem MP. It requires a 20% swing and the Libs to be on over 50% in the opinion polls. That isn’t going to happen.

If you want to keep Andy Reed as your local MP you have to vote for him. There are no free hits this time.

If you don’t want a career politician from London as your local MP – you need to vote for Andy

If you don’t want the Tories in – you need to vote for Andy Reed.

It only requires a 2% swing to the Tories for them to win or a 4% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems with the Tories picking up no extra votes for the Tory to win.

If none of these arguments matter to you and you still vote Lib Dem then fine. But at least you have been given the facts and understand the consequences. You can vote for whoever you like and I know you can make up our own minds. But I don’t want anyone left with the excuse if I lose that they didn’t know!